Monday, 16 June 2014

Equity Europe Case

Here today a post on the European Equity Markets Investment case. Dan McCrum at the Financial Times Alphaville with an entry where he comments on the Citi Bank latest Equity report about European Markets and the likely consequences of the recent announcement of ECB's Mario Draghi extraordinary measures. There's a growing expectation, on the positive side about the effects of these measures. Before a major correction.... which might be triggered in the other side of Atlantic Ocean... an European version of Quantitative Easing is becoming highly probable.

We can get a bit of the sentiment of the Citi researchers reading passages like these:

''So says the still optimistic Jonathan Stubbs at Citi, at least. Halfway through the year and the strategy team budge not from their forecast: 20 per cent total return from European equities this year.
''Shares are no longer cheap in absolute terms, but we stay bullish due to: 1) progressive global economic recovery in 2014-15, 2) return to double-digit earnings growth in 2014-16E, 3) super-cheap relative valuations, eg vs credit, 4) rising risk appetite, eg M&A, demand for equity. ECB QE later this year should also be supportive.''
 The sector valuation decomposition is strickingly important, as the consensus is that valuations aren't cheap, as the chart below (... as well as the above) seems to make clear:

''Indeed, the focus list of the bank’s analysts’ 15 to 20 favourite stocks is striking for its inclusion of a few insurers and banks, alongside the target rich environment of pharmaceutical takeover candidates and industrial recovery plays (click to enlarge).''

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